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“Over 70 per cent of China’s corporate debt belongs to state owned enterprises but well over half of GDP is generated by the private sector. Furthermore, it is the private sector which struggles to raise finance and is being hurt by the shadow banking squeeze. Most finance raised by private firms has been going to pay off current debt. Misallocation of capital is a tale of modern China.”

“Although the deteriorating health environment in China should be optimal for Hua, there must be serious concern. Beijing could slow down urbanization, encourage breast feeding, address lack of exercise and poor diet and even review the expensive “drugs first” medical policy. It is not that diabetes is yet a top area of concern, but each of these measures is independently relevant to Beijing’s other concerns. This raises the likelihood of action. It reduces the implied valuation of Hua.”

“Why has Beihai, a city of 572,000 – or 1.5 million if we include the surrounding area – seen 58,000 arrests for pyramid selling alone since 2014, equivalent to either four or 10 per cent of the whole population? This coastal city is calculated to be the fastest growing city in China, possibly in the whole world. There is no other Chinese city ranked in the world’s 50 fastest growing up to 2020.”

“This entire peace process is perhaps like carrying a priceless porcelain vase through a minefield, vulnerable to disasters, but if everyone becomes convinced – rightly – that they can all emerge as winners, then we could see a very satisfactory conclusion.”

“The number of births looks likely to move downwards despite party policy on birth control liberalizing. This is because although there has been a small improvement of 7 per cent in 2016 and 2017 from before the changes in 2012 and 2013, the fact is that most couples affected by the changes do not want a second child – usually on economic grounds – and many simply don’t wish a child. There is also an increase in the numbers not marrying at all.”

“The party certainly wants the refinancing which is provided by new private sector investors. It may even want some rub-off of ideas in marketing or innovation. However, we should not look for a breakthrough in accountability. It is likely that Chinese private investors are going into these situations with their eyes wide open.”

“It is difficult to forget 2008 when the EU wanted to embark on its first ‘serious’ military mission, which was to the rather large African country of Chad. They eventually realized they would need – but couldn’t find – a number of helicopters. Rather than borrow them from President George W Bush, tacitly acknowledging US military superiority, they decided it would be more palatable to get them from Mr Putin. This happily coincided with his adventure occupying part of Georgia which the EU then found it difficult to criticize.”

“If couples do not show enthusiasm for two children when allowed, there is little point in offering them the chance to have three or more. Indeed as we wrote recently, there has been a revolution within the birth figures where over half are couples having a second child and the number of first children has collapsed. Unfortunately, even so, the total birth numbers are still not impressive.”

“The financial system seems to be creaking with tales of woe from all directions. The common threads running through all these narratives are those of weak regulation, disregard of rules, ambition and greed. What is particularly evident is weak and low capacity regulation over large and fast-growing markets.”

“Thus there are two contrasting tendencies. The first is for couples who were married before the recent two-child policy was put into operation in January 2016 to consider having a second child. The woman is likely to be 30 or more. The policy was announced in October 2015. Couples have had the whole of 2016 and 2017 to fulfil their supposed deepest wishes to have a further child. Those who have not yet done so must have not heard the policy change, been on a long voyage or have too busy a life to be at home conceiving a child.”